All Blacks, Ireland poised for top World Rugby rankings if Springboks stumble
By Theo BrennanWorld Rugby released the ranking permutations for the second round of both the Nations Championship and Nations Cup, detailing how results across both tournaments could significantly alter the global standings for several top nations.
All Blacks' ranking prospects
New Zealand, currently second in the world, cannot improve their rating points total with a victory over Italy due to the substantial 13.73-point differential between the teams. Despite this, the All Blacks could still reclaim the number one position if South Africa loses to Scotland by more than 15 points in Pretoria, according to an analysis outlined by Planet Rugby. Conversely, a first-ever loss to Italy would see New Zealand overtaken by Ireland in second place, provided Ireland defeats Japan in Australia. An historic Italian win could also elevate them to ninth if Fiji concurrently loses to England.
Springboks' precarious top spot
South Africa, currently ranked first, will gain a marginal maximum of 0.03 rating points if they defeat Scotland, given the 9.83-point differential separating the teams. The Springboks risk surrendering their top global ranking to New Zealand if they lose by more than 15 points and the All Blacks secure a win against Italy. A defeat for Scotland could see them drop two places, particularly if England and Argentina win their respective matches, with the latter needing to beat Wales by over 15 points. However, a Scottish victory over the world champions, combined with a French loss in Australia, would propel Scotland to a new high of fourth, with a third-place ranking also possible under specific, wider results.
Elsewhere in international rugby news ahead of this weekend's matches, Wales coach Steve Tandy stated his team has moved past their significant autumn defeat to Argentina as they prepare for their Nations Championship fixture in San Juan. Wales aims to rebound after a challenging opening round.
France and Australia's movements
France, currently fourth, cannot improve their standing independently and would require Ireland to lose to Japan by a margin greater than 15 points on Australian soil. Les Bleus are unable to surpass New Zealand in second place, even if the All Blacks experience an unprecedented loss to Italy. Australia faces a potential fall in rankings only if a defeat is coupled with a Fijian victory over England in Liverpool. A win for Australia could elevate them two places to sixth, surpassing a defeated Argentina and England. A French loss, particularly if Scotland wins in South Africa, would result in a drop for Les Bleus, while a draw would be sufficient for Scotland to reach a new high of fourth if France suffers a substantial defeat.
Weekend schedule and implications
The second round of Nations Championship matches commences with New Zealand versus Italy, followed by Australia hosting France, and then Japan taking on Ireland in Australia. The action then shifts to Liverpool where Fiji hosts England, before South Africa battles Scotland, and the round concludes with Argentina facing Wales. The Nations Cup continues with Uruguay against Romania, Samoa facing Georgia, Tonga playing Spain, Chile versus Hong Kong China, USA against Zimbabwe, and Canada meeting Portugal. These matches will collectively shape the next iteration of the international rugby news rankings.